Welcome to our 18th meta report! The whole meta is shaping around Shieldwall due to its incredibly powerful interactions with Prince Anséis, Seltkirk and Anna Strenger. SK continues to dominate the other factions, with their Warrior deck being as strong as ever. ST players fell in love with Nature’s Gift, but Precision Strike is the better option.
While SY’s playrate is at an all-time low, the faction still performs well with Passiflora. Sacred Flame received a huge buff, so Congregate Firesworn swarm is finally playable. After the harsh nerf to Ethereal, MO players have settled for Carapace or the usual Hunger deck. With their top-end cards nerfed, NG struggles to keep up with the rest of the field.
Moving forward, our reports will also include a data analysis section to give you a rough idea of what the current playrates and winrates are. We will update the report regularly in order to provide the community with a spot-on representation of the pro rank meta. You can join our Discord if you have any questions.
Graphics: WellMax81
Editing: Wusubi
Writers: Minuano, Gravesh, McP0yle, Pajabol, SpyroZA, Thekeyer
Consultants: Green-Knight, Saber97, KingChezz93, Qnerr, xCyBerZz
The mighty SK Warriors are still dominating the meta. Rage of the Sea is a very flexible leader ability, allowing you to contest the first two rounds with ease. Additionally, reworked Greatswords are arguably better than they used to be, acting as solid 10-for-6 value plays. With a Greatsword in your graveyard, Hjalmar becomes threatening removal tool. SK can apply a lot of pressure on the other factions, which makes it one of the best decks to ladder with. -Wusubi
Strengths:
- Very consistent due to Vabjorn, Blood Eagle and Raiding Fleet
- With a strong bronze package, a myriad of control tools and some pointslam options, you can bleed in a lot of matchups while still having a good short round
Weaknesses:
- Given the Midrange approach of this deck, you can get outvalued by engine-overload decks if you lose Round 1 and thus can’t bleed them
Considerations:
- Morkvarg: HoT → Tyrggvi if you’re facing too many mirrors
- Hammond, Herkja, Gremist with Decoction, Savage Bears
While the rest of the field got hit with small love taps in the latest patch, NR still gets to bask in its former glory. On top of that, patch 7.2 introduced Shieldwall, a highly synergistic leader that enables even better abuse of great engines and especially the powerful Duel mechanic. The deck is exceptional when it draws well, however it doesn’t have a tutor for its top-end gold cards, which is a big downside given how consistent the other meta decks are. -Gravesh
Strengths:
- Very strong pointslam, engines and control tools
- Extremely flexible game plan with many possible alterations to round length and resource commitment
Weaknesses:
- Scenarios (e.g. Masquerade Ball)
- As always, drawing poorly can be the bane of NR
Considerations:
- Falibor, Bloody Baron, Reynard, Siege Ladder, Lyrian Scytheman
This control version of Gord includes Geralt: Professional and Saesenthessis instead of Schirrú and Isengrims Council, making it more flexible in the current meta. Needless to say, the deck can feel unfair to play against when it gets Red coin, because it can generate tons of carry-over. Novigradian Justice helps you with finding a pass on Blue coin, especially when used on the buffed Mahakam Volunteers. With reliable removal and huge finishers, you can go toe-to-toe with any deck. -Wusubi
Strengths:
- Extremely powerful with last say due to its reactive playstyle
- A great mix of carry-over, efficient control tools and big finishers in Sheldon and Gord
Weaknesses:
- Omitting Schirrú makes the matchup vs swarm decks worse
- The deck relies on finding specific pieces at the right time, so missing Oneiromancy can definitely hinder your game plan
Considerations:
- Try this version with Schirrú
- Alzur’s Thunder, Adrenaline Rush, Mahakam Marauder, Squirrel
Patch 7.2 has introduced a new leader ability: Nature’s Gift, which allows ST players to go for the pointslam-oriented approach. The passive ability is worth a lot of points throughout the game and the Vitality charges can be used to get decent value from Hamadryad or to protect Treant Boar from 5 damage removal. Heatwave and Bekker’s Rockslide provide some crucial removal, while Novigradian Justice into Mahakam Volunteers is an incredible proactive play which thins your deck. -Pajabol
Strengths:
- Very strong short Round 3 with the massive Harald Gord finisher
- You’ve got a lot of high-tempo plays and good removal options in Korathi Heatwave, Rockslide and Nature’s Rebuke
Weaknesses:
- Playing into tall punish makes the Shieldwall matchup gruesome
- You can get outvalued by greedy strategies like Firesworn swarm
Considerations:
- Bekker’s Rockslide, Treant Boar → Geralt of Rivia, Circle of Life
Firesworn has been an archetype that has struggled for some time now. However, with the huge buff to Sacred Flame, the deck finally feels viable and even good in many cases. With an insane amount of points in long rounds, the deck can take opponents by surprise if they aren’t careful. Devotion is great for this archetype, as it improves Ulrich, allows you to play Mutants Maker and Jacques Grand Master is a big threat in Round 3. -SpyroZA
Strengths:
- Absurd long round potential, with solid short round plays like Jacques
- Vivaldi Bank and Ferko make the deck fairly consistent at finding its win conditions
Weaknesses:
- Extremely difficult to pilot, lack of reliable control tools
- Having just 1 target for Justice makes your mulligans awkward, the deck can end up with broken packages if the opponent bleeds you in a smart way
Considerations:
- Roderick de Wett, Harald Gord
As the season progressed and the meta shifted, Devotion Hunger struggled to deliver reliable results. Fortunately, by dropping Devotion and the Frost package, the deck can get access to Heatwave, which seems to be a necessary removal tool this month. A powerful mix of pointslam and some basic control options allow you to execute different game plans. However, even with the inclusion of Korathi Heatwave, the matchup against decks like Shieldwall is incredibly difficult to navigate. -Thekeyer
Strengths:
- Consistent due to the inclusion of Oneiromancy and Foglets
- Great Red coin abuse potential, powerful short round opens up the possibility to bleed your opponent dry in Round 2
Weaknesses:
- Tall punish, you can’t effectively deal with engine-overload decks
- Artifact removal on Haunt leaves you with a limited amount of consumes, which can make your Deathwish units awkward
Considerations:
- Imperial Manticore, The Beast
- Caranthir Ar-Feiniel, Barghest → Geralt of Rivia, Endrega Warrior
After magpie131’s dominant performance in the Top 16 qualifier, players have started picking up his Carapace deck. Given its favored matchup against the current iterations of SK, the deck is quickly gaining on popularity. Ciri: Dash and vanilla Ciri can grant you card advantage, while Keltullis will obliterate the opposing side of the board. And even if the opponent deals with these threats as well as Cave Troll, you can still win the game with Ozzrel. -Wusubi
Strengths:
- Breaking Devotion gives you access to Oneiromancy, Heatwave and Alzur’s Thunder, providing the deck with crucial removal tools
- The deck will prey on opponents who don’t have efficient answers to its big threats, often allowing you to acquire card advantage or to just sit back and laugh as Keltullis burns everything to the ground
Weaknesses:
- Contrary to popular belief, this deck is actually difficult to pilot and requires a decent understanding of matchups, since the timing of your cards needs to be on point
- While going tall in a myriad of ways is effective vs SK, NR with their Dueling units and decks with Heatwave (like Precision Strike) can put an end to your shenanigans
Considerations:
- Alzur’s Thunder → Strays of Spalla
With the small provision nerfs to Oneiromancy and Jacques Miraculous Child, the majority of players went back to Vivaldi Bank. While SY is the least played faction, Hidden Cache is still a solid meta contender due to the immense amount of pressure it can apply with its threatening engines. Strong control cards like Philippa Eilhart, Heatwave and the usual Poison package allow you to shut down the opposing threats while your engines are rolling. -Wusubi
Strengths:
- The deck packs a healthy mix of engines and flexible control tools
- Strong game plan revolving around winning Round 1, pushing Round 2 with Passiflora and finishing the game in Round 3 with the likes of Jacques de Aldersberg
Weaknesses:
- Not having Oneiromancy means that you’ll sometimes miss a key combo piece
- SY has a very steep learning curve and is definitely the hardest faction to master
Considerations:
- Blood Money, Jackpot
- Adriano, Lieutenant Von Herst, Sewer Raiders, Sly Seductress
The mighty empire of NG got the short end of the stick this patch, with mainstays like Braathens and Vincent Van Moorlehem losing power and not looking quite as menacing as before. What NG has going for it is still one of the most effective Scenarios in Masquerade Ball, granting you an excellent long round with Seditious Aristocrats, Thirsty Dames and spying units. The deck can punish engines, anything that goes tall, and is Shieldwall’s kryptonite. -McP0yle
Strengths:
- Improved proactivity with double Magne Division, Thirsty Dames and Tortoise
- The Poison package will send the opposing engines to the shadow realm, Imposter further enhances this trait and makes the opponent’s cards work against them
Weaknesses:
- Artifact removal, Masquerade Ball is the centerpiece of this deck
- Swarm-based decks like Firesworn are your Achilles’ heel, as you lack wide punish
Considerations:
- Rot Tosser, Deithwen Arbalest
Tactical Decision version of Hyperthin allows you to execute your game plan consistently, to the point where you can afford to play Invocation. The buffed thinning cards make your Round 1 explosive, as you can generate a lot of tempo with Artorius Vigo. Deithwen Arbalest will enable both Impera Brigades and Hunting Pack, while Ciri: Nova can put the opponent in a weird spot. Sadly, this archetype has a couple of glaring weaknesses which prevent it from becoming truly competitive. -Wusubi
Strengths:
- Can put out a lot of early tempo with Artorius Vigo, Impera Brigades and Hunting Pack
- The Reveal package offers an insane amount of points in just a few plays, granting you a powerful short Round 3
Weaknesses:
- Without Venendal Elites, you run out of juice once you’ve played your thinning cards
- Vulnerable to tall punish, can struggle with proactivity, especially when trying to bleed the opponent in Round 2
- Impera Brigades and Hunting Pack are a double-edged sword due to the low amount of soldiers and just one way of applying a status to the opposing units
Considerations:
- Bribery, Imperial Diplomacy
Welcome to the second September update. Starting this week, we’ll have another stat added to the chart called “Pure Winrate,” attempting to eliminate mirror matches that pollute a faction’s winrate, assuming that mirrors resolve in an overall 50% winrate across all games. -Minuano
Due to a lack of a better measure, draws have inevitably been counted as losses in specific faction winrates (draws per faction isn’t a publicly available stat). However, for Overall winrate, draws have been counted as half a win, since the total number of draws per player is available on their profile page.
With less that a week remaining until the end of the season, one would expect that the meta would have fully settled by now. However, as is customary after each qualifier, the meta has been shaken one last time before the Season of the Dryad dies out.
SK is still, by and large, riding in the front with an outrageous Pure Winrate of 63.25% and PAT4F of 94.94% which indicates that almost the entirety of Top 500 have SK in their Top 4 factions. SK’s insane winrate explains why it’s no longer leading in playrate, as it’s safe to assume that most people have brought their SK fMMRs high enough and are looking to climb with other factions.
The situation for NG is looking extremely dire. The faction’s playrate has practically nosedived by -3.13%. The recent increase in winrate doesn’t in the slightest account for this loss. NG’s PAT4F is at an all-time low of 36.55% which means just over a third of the Top 500 have NG in their Top 4 factions. It’s probably best to stay away from NG until next season.
MO is the biggest surprise of this week after magpie131 qualified for yet another Gwent Open. Many players are trying out his Carapace deck with Keltullis and Ciri. A fact which this report cannot accurately account for, as this is a recent phenomenon and the overall numbers simply haven’t had time to reflect this change. Nevertheless, you can spot the spike in MO playrate down below in Keyer’s day-by-day chart.
And last but not least, despite the resurgence of Keltullis and its adverse effect on Firesworn, it appears that SY has picked up the slack, improving in winrate, playrate and in PAT4F. Passiflora decks are slowly but surely being replaced by Firesworn, so it remains to be seen what next season may have in store for SY.
Some other cool stats at the time of capturing this data that we couldn’t fit into the chart:
- A total of 174844 games were played across all 500 players and from the 435 publicly available profiles, a total of 151650 games were counted towards the stats represented in the chart.
- Out of those 151650 games, 32170 ST games, 26011 NR games, 20703 NG games, 18185 SY games, 24703 MO games and 29878 SK games were registered.
- About 14.5% of the total games that were played didn’t contribute to Top 4 fMMRs.
The most efficient player so far is Ryazanov13 with an efficiency score of 3.260.
Play and winrate by day (7th-24th of Sep)
Statistically speaking, this is a great season to observe. The players keep trying to find ways to counter popular decks and the meta changes rapidly, causing constant winrate fluctuations. After magpie131’s success in the Top 16 qualifiers, many players decided to take his Carapace deck for a spin in search of a fourth faction. -Thekeyer
The aforementioned Carapace deck with Keltullis is a nice counter to SK, so we could observe MO’s playrate skyrocket to 24.13%. To react to the meta shift, ST players moved from Nature’s Gift to Precision Strike, usually ditching Schirrú for more tall punish, which proved to bring great results, landing ST on the second best winrate (and playrate) as of late.
While NR holds the 2nd best overall winrate in Top 500, the faction has been struggling to maintain a decent winrate recently due to the resurgence of control ST. This resulted in players giving up on NR, causing it to drop in popularity.
SY is played in various forms and is proving to get decent results in the hands of experienced players despite the lower playrate. NG’s popularity continues to drop deeper and deeper (currently sitting at a sad playrate of 9.09%) and even though NG recently started to show some improvement in winrate, it’s still the worst performing faction.
Play and winrate by day (7th-26th of Sep)
Looking at the development from the last two days, we can see that ST’s playrate has increased by 5% while its winrate dropped due to the large sample size and the prevalence of mirrors. With control ST being so popular, MO’s playrate dropped by 5%.
Here we can see NR dominating the day-to-day winrate chart once again. Despite ST’s playrate being so high, MO manages to maintain a respectable winrate. This is most likely due to Keltullis being so favored against SK.
Welcome to the first September update everyone! Halfway into the season, the meta seems to have settled for the moment. Looking at data from 1st to 16th of September, it’s clear that the best performing faction is SK, with a mind-numbing “PAT4F” (“Popularity Among Top 4 Factions”) of 91.20% and nearly 60% winrate. -Minuano
Due to a lack of a better measure, draws have inevitably been counted as losses in specific faction winrates (draws per faction isn’t a publicly available stat). However, for Overall winrate, draws have been counted as half a win, since the total number of draws per player is available on their profile page.
As better players make their way into the Top 500, a boost in winrate across all factions was imminent. NG is still sitting at a less than ideal 50.66% winrate, but both the faction’s PAT4F and playrate have significantly plummeted since last week, indicating that only the most devout worshippers of the Great Sun remain loyal to the faction.
SY remains the least played faction, however what it lacks in playrate, it makes up for in winrate. With more experienced players entering the higher echelons of the pro ladder, it makes sense that the most demanding faction is starting to pick up the slack.
MO seem to be stuck in a purgatory, minding their own business. ST has seen a significant proliferation in playrate, most likely partially attributed to the new leader, Nature’s Gift, and how powerful it turned out to be.
Some other cool stats at the time of capturing this data that we couldn’t fit into the chart:
- A total of 128036 games were played across all 500 players, and from the 432 publicly available profiles, a total of 112000 games were counted towards the stats represented in the chart.
- Out of those 112000 games, 22894 ST games, 19825 NR games, 18788 NG games, 10944 SY games, 17176 MO games and 22373 SK games were registered.
- About 13% of the total games that were played did not contribute to Top 4 fMMRs.
- The most efficient player so far is lerio2 with an efficiency score of 3.243.
Top 500 playrate by day (7th-16th of Sep)
At the start of the season, it seemed that everything would revolve around NR and countering it. Many players hoped that NG would keep Shieldwall in check, causing NG’s playrate to spike at 22.86% on 9th of September.
After a while, most factions went with greedy options. It became obvious that NG can’t keep up with such points and is clearly the weakest faction, especially with NR’s playrate being much lower than expected. -Thekeyer
SK proved to be the true ruler of the ladder, with its playrate only dropping a bit recently, as most players already got a decent fMMR and switched factions. Many players seem to be picking up ST, which is now the most played faction, skyrocketing from its lowest point of 17.18% on 12th of Sep to the current 22.80% playrate (nearly 5% higher than SK).
In search of the 4th faction, SY was picked up and appears to be more reliable than the other options, settling at a comfortable 14.84% playrate after the initial 6.93% (which was the all-time low for SY).
Welcome to our very first data analysis section, where we aim to look for interesting anomalies hidden within the stats and try to rationalize them. Within the chart below, you can see that for each faction, 3 stats are given.
While you may find winrate and playrate stats self-explanatory, there’s a new stat that we’d like to call “PAT4F” which stands for “Popularity Among Top 4 Factions”. For instance, a PAT4F of 75.40% for ST would mean that among all analyzed public profiles, 75.40% of them have had ST in their Top 4 factions. -Minuano
Due to a lack of a better measure, draws have inevitably been counted as losses in specific faction winrates (draws per faction isn’t a publicly available stat). However, for Overall winrate, draws have been counted as half a win, since the total number of draws per player is available on their profile page.
With the introduction of new leaders, it was only a matter of time before we saw a shift in faction stats. However, it appears that the best factions from last patch (SK, NR) continue to rule the meta, with SK sitting at 54.19% followed by NR at 51.86% winrate.
The worst performing faction appears to be NG, at an abysmal 45.38% winrate yet surprisingly, its playrate is second only to SK. This may be as a result of players experimenting with unoptimized decks after the nerfs, as well as the fact that NG is known to be a good counter to NR, which explains its high playrate to an extent.
SY, unsurprisingly, has the lowest playrate and PAT4F by a wide margin at 7.47% and 28.22% respectively. This is most likely as a result of the higher difficulty of the faction and the fact that there is already a selection of 4 other factions with which players have been able to attain respectably high fMMRs within the first week of this season.
Some other cool stats at the time of capturing this data that we couldn’t fit into the chart:
- A total of 98707 games were played across all 500 players, and from the 443 publicly available profiles, a total of 87808 games were counted towards the stats represented in the chart.
- Out of those 87808 games, 16348 ST games, 15138 NR games, 17502 NG games, 6556 SY games, 13901 MO games and 18363 SK games were registered.
- About 9.5% of the total games that were played did not contribute to Top 4 fMMRs.
- The most efficient player so far is Saber97, with an efficiency score of 3.348.
Changelog
September 17 - Updated the Data Analysis section, kudos to Minuano and Thekeyer. Several changes to decks and ratings.
September 26 - Another update to Data Analysis. Added Carapace to Tier 2, rated at 3.75 stars.